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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Table 3.2:
Supply potentials 2017
3.3 Supply potentials
For the purpose of this Report the supply assumptions
define the potential supply from a given source. The
word “potential” implies that these gas supplies cannot
be considered as forecasts of future flows.
In order to capture the uncertainty in the development of supply, minimum and
maximum potentials have been defined for each source. The development of such
potentials is based on publicly accessible literature, reports, daily news and mem-
bers’ and stakeholders’ feedback.
These scenarios cover both:
\\
Supplies from outside EU coming from Russia, Norway, Algeria, Libya,
Azerbaijan, and LNG
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Supplies from inside EU coming from conventional national production,
non-fossil sources like biomethane and unconventional fossil sources like
shale gas
In the TYNDP analysis the assumed minimum and maximum potentials for each
source are used as lower and upper limits for the imports from this given source.
In this respect upstream investments in neighbouring countries will be a key factor
in driving new production dedicated to Europe. It will support not only new explora-
tion but also new technical solutions enhancing recovery of existing fields. This will
enable the production of the most challenging reserves and their export to Europe
by pipeline. To see this potential materialise Europe needs to give long term and
robust signal on the role of gas. Otherwise there is a risk of reduction of surrounding
gas reserves or their production and export to other destinations in the form of LNG.
It is important to highlight that all potential gas supplies are regarded as pipeline
bounded gas supplies except LNG. LNG is treated as a single source gathering the
potential supply of all producing countries. For those exporting gas, both as pipeline-
bounded gas and LNG, the potential supplies have been treated separately in order
to avoid double counting. Each supply potential is developed independently and no
specific likelihood is defined.
The first assessment year in the TYNDP is 2017. Taking into account stakeholder
feedback, it was determined that using supply potentials based on recently observed
data would be more realistic. As a result, the supply potentials for the year 2017 are
not based on the same literature/studies like the supply sources for the other time
snapshots (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035).
Based on the expertise developed by ENTSOG for the seasonal outlooks, the maxi-
mum supply potential is built by using the average of the two maximums of ENTSOG
Summer and Winter Supply Outlooks 2015/16 for each source.
The minimum supply potential is developed by using the minimum yearly supply ob-
served in the calendar years 2009–2015 for each source (2011 is disregarded for
Libya).
SUPPLY POTENTIALS 2017 (GWh/d)
MINIMUM
MAXIMUM
RUSSIA
3,503
4,748
NORWAY
2,810
3,320
ALGERIA
674
1,007
LIBYA
165
235
LNG
1,061
2,101