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Besides the gas exports via pipeline, Russia is also an exporter of LNG. The Sakha-
lin liquefaction plant was commissioned in 2009 and the majority of the LNG was
exported to Japan and South Korea. In 2015 Russia exported around 15bcm of liq-
uefied natural gas. However, it is still a small amount in comparison to the EU pipe-
line-bounded gas exports. The Yamal LNG plant could increase the LNG exports of
Russia to Europe.
In addition, Russia is extending its interest to far Eastern markets. In 2014, Russia
signed a supply contract with China to deliver 38bcma of natural gas as of 2018 via
the 2,200km long Power of Siberia pipeline that runs from the Chayandinskoye field
in Yakutia to the city of Blagoveshchensk on the Russian-Chinese border.
Supply potentials
The supply potentials for Russia reflect continuity from the previous TYNDPs taking
into account the unchanged information about the resources. Exports in the form of
LNG are part of the LNG analysis featured later in this report.
\\
Maximum Russian pipe gas potential:
This potential was directly taken from the estimated “Gas exports to EU” published
by the Institute of Energy Strategy (Gromov 2011). These figures show a shift in the
exports to Asia-Pacific. The figures between 2030 and 2037 are extrapolated from
the 2020–2030 trend.
\\
Minimum Russian pipe gas potential:
This potential was determined based on the following publication: “Potential impact
of new Asian contracts on Russian gas exports in a worst case scenario in Europe”
– “Europe 70% ToP”, “The Political and Commercial Dynamics of Russia’s Gas Ex-
port Strategy” (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, James Henderson & Tatiana
Mitrova, September 2015).
The below graph shows the Minimum and Maximum Russian pipe gas potentials.
The graph also highlights the historical range from 2009 to 2015.
PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM RUSSIA
GWh/d
2017*
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
MAXIMUM
5,294
5,762
5,869
5,977
6,085
6,128
MINIMUM
3,623
3,623
3,148
2,346
2,346
2,346
* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 3.2 are used for the assessment
Table 3.3:
Pipeline gas potentials from Russia (GWh/d)
0
1,000
500
1,500
2,000
TWh/y
0
100
50
150
200
bcma
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2035
2034
2037
2036
Maximum
Range
Minimum
Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)
Figure 3.18:
Pipeline gas potentials from Russia