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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Supply Potentials
The supply potentials define a possible range of Norwegian gas exports to Europe
via pipeline; exports as LNG are part of the LNG analysis featured later in this report.
The Norwegian supply potentials are based on data coming from the Norwegian
Petroleum Directorate (NPD)/Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MPE) and GASSCO.
The potential range of Norwegian supply has been estimated as follows:
\\
Maximum Norwegian pipeline gas scenario
This potential represents the exports from Norway, where the maximum level, fore-
seen to be reached in 2019, based on information estimated by GASSCO, is main-
tained until 2037. This level of production and exports would require the develop-
ment of current discoveries and yet to find gas fields, alongside the existing fields
and to develop the required interconnection infrastructure.
\\
Minimum Norwegian pipeline gas scenarios
This potential takes the lowest of the minimum imports of 2009–2015 (93bcma)
and the production sales forecast of resources in existing fields (GASSCO informa-
tion), extrapolated between 2035 and 2037.
0
400
600
800
1,000
200
1,400
1,200
1,600
TWh/y
0
90
60
30
120
150
BCM/a
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2035
2034
2037
2036
Maximum
Range
Minimum
Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)
Figure 3.21:
Pipeline gas potentials from Norway
PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM NORWAY
GWh/d
2017*
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
MAXIMUM
3,208
3,267
3,267
3,267
3,267
3,267
MINIMUM
2,762
2,762
2,317
1,752
1,322
1,203
* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 3.2 are used for the assessment
Table 3.5:
Pipeline gas potentials from Norway (GWh/d)