116 |
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Supply potentials
In order to define its maximum and minimum supply potentials ENTSOG considered
different combination of production, national demand trends, also taking into
account different shares between LNG and gas via pipeline. Exports as LNG are part
of the LNG analysis featured later in this report.
\\
Maximum Algerian pipeline gas potential
Production future figures were defined applying the trend in production expected by
Medpro
1)
, to 2014 production level (according to BP Statistical Review 2015
2)
),
while consumption figures were taken directly from Medpro forecasts scenarios.
From the total potential export, defined as the difference between production and
internal consumption, the potential export only to the EU was derived by deducting
the share of export to be allocated to other African Countries (according to BP Sta-
tistical Review 2015 historical figures and WEO 2015 New Policy Scenario evolution
of African demand forecast) and of the LNG share (based on historical average
2010–2014).
\\
Minimum Algerian pipeline gas potential
Production future figures were defined applying the trend in production and de-
mand increase expected by the WEO 2015 NPS to the BP statistical figures. From
the total potential export, defined as the difference between production and inland
consumption, the potential export only to EU was then derived deducting the share
of export to be allocated to other African Countries (according to BP Statistical
Review 2015 and WEO 2015 NPS figures and of LNG (based on the historical
maximum for the period 2010–2014).
0
300
200
100
400
500
TWh/y
0
30
20
10
40
50
bcma
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
Maximum
Range
Minimum
Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)
Figure 3.27:
Pipeline gas potentials from Algeria
PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM ALGERIA
GWh/d
2017*
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
MAXIMUM
1,083
1,204
1,379
1,508
1,486
1,476
MINIMUM
646
633
556
501
413
339
* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 3.2 are used for the assessment
1) Outlook for Oil and Gas in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, October 2012
2) BP Statistical Review 2016 was not available when supply potentials were elaborated
Table 3.7:
Pipeline gas potentials from Algeria (GWh/d)