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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Table 3.8:
Pipeline gas potentials from Libya (GWh/d)
Supply Scenarios
Based on different assumptions on production and consumption ENTSOG consid-
ers a maximum and a minimum potential for Libyan export.
\\
Maximum Libyan pipeline gas scenario
Based on the technical export capacity of GreenStream pipeline (354GWh/d), the
maximum potential assumes a 95% load factor of the pipeline (336GWh/d).
\\
Minimum Libyan pipeline gas scenario
This potential is based on Mott MacDonald’s report
1)
. According to its low case, the
production potential ranges from 16bcm (176TWh) in 2015 to 20bcm (220TWh)
in 2030. For the period 2031–2037 the production figures have been then extra
polated. Total exports have been derived applying the minimum export/production
ratio used in the last TYNDP edition (34% according to the historical OPEC data).
Then pipeline exports have been estimated at 97% of overall Libyan gas exports.
0
60
30
90
120
TWh/y
0
6
3
9
12
bcma
2036
2037
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Maximum
Range
Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)
Minimum
Figure 3.29:
Pipeline gas potentials from Libya
PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM LIBYA
GWh/d
2017*
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
MAXIMUM
336
336
336
336
336
336
MINIMUM
167
173
184
195
206
211
* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 5.2 are used for the assessment
1) Supplying the EU Natural Gas Market November 2010, Mott MacDonald