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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Figure 6.1:
Supply Adequacy Outlook
0
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
6,000
7,000
TWh/y
0
500
400
300
200
100
600
700
bcma
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
National Production (NP)
Demand Green Evolution
NP-Biomenthane
Demand EU Green Revolution
Minimum Supply Potential
Demand Blue Transition
Blue Transition + Exports
Non-FID National Production
Maximum Supply Potential
6.2 Supply Adequacy Outlook
The Supply Adequacy Outlook is based on the supply
potentials and the demand scenarios (see Supply and
Demand chapters). For 2017, the results reflect the
“tomorrow as today” approach applied for the definition
of the supply potentials.
The supply demand adequacy including exports to extra-EU countries, is achieva-
ble for all demand scenarios, as illustrated in Figure 6.1.
The Supply Adequacy Outlook takes into account the yearly demand of the EU-28
countries together with the relatively small demand of the other countries considered
in the assessment that are supplied via the EU
1)
. It also considers the yearly exports
from EU to extra-EU countries
2)
, which on Figure 6.1 have been represented by the
dotted line on top of the EU Blue Transition scenario demand.
The minimum/maximum supply potentials consist of the indigenous production and
the minimum/maximum supply potentials of each extra-EU supply sources (Russia,
Norway, Algeria, Libya, LNG and Azerbaijan). In addition to this the Cypriot produc-
tion is made accessible through a project with a non-FID less-advanced status,
therefore it is only considered in the High infrastructure level. Biomethane produc-
tion is an additional inner-EU supply source
3)
.
The fact that demand, including on the short-term, exceeds the minimum supply
potential indicates that supply demand adequacy requires that not all sources are at
their lowest level at the same time.
1) Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYROM, Serbia and Switzerland
2) Russia (Kaliningrad area and St. Petersburg region), Ukraine and Turkey
3) The volume of the biomethane production potential depends on the scenario, as detailed in the Supply Chapter.
The supply adequacy outlook shows the highest potential