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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
limiting monopolistic supply behaviour by mitigating price spread effects between
different import routes. Also, the monetisation for the different supply mixes has
been carried out on a country level accompanying the European perspective.
Additionally, modelling the high demand cases based on the storage level stemming
from the average year simulation leads to improved results. The continuous cooper-
ation with GIE helped to improve the modelling of storages and LNG terminals. This
includes the modelling of gas storages by the definition of injection and withdrawal
curves and LNG terminals during high demand situations (see Annex F).
Four demand scenarios have been developed for this edition of TYNDP: Slow
Progression, Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution. All these
scenarios are fully-fletched in terms of related data and have been analysed in the
Demand chapter. Yet as the Slow Progression demand situation falls within the
range of the other scenarios, the TYNDP assessment will cover all but this scenario.
The three assessed scenarios, Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green
Revolution, all achieve the European energy and climate 2030 targets while taking
different paths in terms of the overall gas demand, from a continued decrease to a
limited rebound.
The assessment in the TYNDP 2017 is done for the years 2017, 2020, 2025,
2030 and 2035 for the following dimensions:
\\
Demand Scenarios:
Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green
Revolution (see chapter 2: Demand)
1)
\\
Infrastructure Level:
Low, Advanced, High
2)
and 2
nd
PCI list
(see chapter 4: Infrastructure)
For all combinations of these scenarios and infrastructure levels, specific
assessments analyse both the whole year and high demand situations, as the gas
infrastructure needs to be fit for those circumstances:
\\
The whole year
refers to an average climatic year and consists of an average
summer (AS)
3)
and an average winter (AW)
4)
. For this period, analysis consists
of:
–
–
The Supply Configurations: Balanced, minimisation and maximisation of
each extra-EU supply source in the supply mix and the import price spread
configuration (see Annex F). This allows conclusions towards different feasi-
ble supply mixes and flow situations, monetisation effects on EU level and
the alignment of marginal prices. In line with what has been proposed to
stakeholders when elaborating the TYNDP concept, the analysis focuses on
a limited number of meaningful configurations.
–
–
The Supply and price dependence per country
5)
–
–
The Price diversification potentials per country
6)
1) The total gas demand (overall for the residential, commercial, industrial, transport and power sectors) is a direct input
into the modelling.
2) The results for the High infrastructure level are shown exclusively in Annex E, in line with reasons highlighted in the
Infrastructure chapter
3) 7 month storage injection period April to October, 214 days
4) 5 month storage withdrawal period November to March, 151 days
5) Supply Source Price Dependence (SSPDe), Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD) and Uncooperative Supply
Source Dependence (USSD) indicators
6) Supply Source Price Diversification (SSPDi) indicator