ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report |

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The High demand situations

are the peak day (DC) corresponding to each

national design case and the 2-week high demand case (14-day, 2W)

corre-

sponding to the highest 2-week demand as would occur over a 20-year period.

They are analysed using:

–

High demand situation occurring under an otherwise normal situation

(No Route Disruption)

–

Disruption Cases: Russian transit through Ukraine (UA), Russian transit

through Belarus (BY), Langeled pipeline between Norway and UK (Langeled),

Franpipe pipeline between Norway and France (Franpipe), GreenStream

pipeline between Libya and Italy, Transmed pipeline between Algeria and

Italy (Transmed), MEG pipeline between Algeria and Spain including supply

to Portugal (MEG), TANAP pipeline between Azerbaijan and Greece (TANAP).

This allows conclusions towards different feasible flow situations, disrupted

demand of countries and the remaining flexibility of countries.

While the term country is mainly used for the explanations in the chapter, it must be

noted that the granularity of the assessment is higher in some instances. In Germany

the results can also refer to the balancing zones GASPOOL (DEg) and NetConnect

Germany (DEn), in France

to the North (FRn), South (FRs) and TIGF (FRt) zones

and in Belgium to the L- and H-gas balancing zones (BEl, BEh).

In addition to this, the resilience and diversification potentials of the gas infrastruc-

tures in the different countries are assessed independently from the network

modelling approach by calculations based on the capacities and demand

The assessment is done for the EU-28 countries as well as Switzerland, Bosnia and

Herzegovina, Serbia and FYROM. The interaction with the gas sources at the borders

of the assessment are reflected by the supply potentials detailed in the Supply

chapter. In addition to this, the following exports have been considered for all years

and all scenarios: Russia (Kaliningrad area and St. Petersburg region)

, Ukraine

and Turkey

The assessment is carried out from a European perspective, under the assumption of

perfect market functioning. This ensures to focus on conclusions where solving the

identified gap cannot be managed by market or regulatory rules and would presuma-

bly require infrastructure development with cross-border significance. The degree to

which the European gas market is functioning and its evolution are already addressed

in various other reports and consequently is not part of this TYNDP. The reader, when

interpreting the results, should keep in mind this perfect market functioning as an as-

sumption which can differ from real market behaviours, influenced by commercial

and technical limitations, commercial strategies and/or local circumstances.

The following assessment results offer a robust approach for identifying the capabil-

ity of the European gas infrastructure to deal with a range of scenarios. This means

that the identified evolution of indicators over time, and from one infrastructure level

to another, is at least as meaningful as the absolute values.

This chapter focuses on the main results of the multi-criteria analysis, reflecting the

main trends in the evolution of the European gas system. Therefore, it only covers a

selection of indicators, years, scenarios and supply mixes. Additional detailed results

are available in Annex E. The description of the modelling approach, indicators and

monetisation can be found in Annex F, which also provides an overview of the input

data for the modelling tool and all modelled cases.

1) Both high demand situations are based on the results (e. g. storage fill levels) of the whole year simulation.

The peak day takes place on 31 January, the 2-week high demand case during the last two February weeks.

2) The French North and South zones are foreseen to be merged by end 2018. The infrastructure projects necessary for this

merger and related capacity increase are part of this TYNDP.

3) The French “Trading Region South”, in place since April 2015, still covers two balancing zones: France South and France TIGF.

4) N-1 for ESW-CBA and Import Route Diversification (IRD) indicators

5) 21,7 TWh/year – transit from Russia. Kaliningrad: summer 46 GWh/d, winter 79 GWh/d, 2-week 98 GWh/d, Peak

104 GWh/d, St. Petersburg: winter, Peak, 2-week 34 GWh/d

6) 124 TWh/year. 339 GWh/d for all temporal periods (summer, winter, 2-week, peak)

7) 135 TWh/year – transit from Russia. Summer 366 GWh/d, winter 379 GWh/d, 2-week 478 GWh/d, peak 478 GWh/d