ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report

F.4 List of main assumptions

and inputs

Stakeholders provided the feedback that they were

missing an overview of the assumptions and inputs

for modelling. As an answer to this feedback, the main

assumptions and inputs for the TYNDP modelling have

been listed below.

F.4.1 DEMAND

Demand scenarios

Storylines to assess a wide enough range of possible futures. Scenario development

is part of the stakeholders joint working sessions.

Gas demand

Fixed input to the simulation. It is fixed at country level, or balancing zone level for

multi-zones countries.

The demand data is defined for every demand scenario and simulation case:

Whole year simulation case: the demand is composed of an average summer

(AS = 7 months) and an average winter (AW = 5 months).

Design case: high demand on a peak day.

2-week cold spell case: high demand on 14 consecutive days that can

happen once every 20 years, based on the average daily demand.

For further information, refer to Chapter 2.4.

Demand data

Assumptions provided by the TSOs according to the storylines defined for the

scenarios, the demand data is the aggregation of the final gas demand (industrial,

transport, residential and commercial) and the gas demand for power generation.

Data for gas-fired power generation is based on ENTSO-E data.

For further information, refer to Annex C.

Demand modelling assumptions

Design case: the peak day demand is simulated on 31 January.

2-week cold spell: high demand event simulated during the 2

half of

February.