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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report |
45
2.1 Introduction
The demand chapter provides an outlook of the
European gas demand for the period 2017–2037 from
an ENTSOG perspective. This chapter has three specific
aims. The first is to provide a context for European gas
demand that currently exists and how it has developed
in recent years. The second is to provide demand sce-
narios for the EU supply adequacy outlook as stipulated
in REG 715/2009 and TYNDP assessment. The third is
to provide the detailed demand data used for this as-
sessment.
The demand scenarios show the evolution of the gas demand on a yearly basis.
Whilst the yearly information facilitates the comparability between scenarios, the key
parameters for network design and operation are based on hourly and daily (peak)
demand. These high demand scenarios, on a single day or over a sustained period,
indicate the capacity that a transmission system must be able to provide. This infor-
mation is vital for the safe, secure and sustainable operation of a transmission
system.
Storylines and parameters that define these scenarios were a key part of the stake-
holder engagement process, along with their alignment with other publications in
terms of electricity generation and commodity prices. The scenarios are a combina-
tion of bottom-up and top-down approaches. The top-down approach is based on
macro-economic parameters for the final gas demand scenarios (residential &
commercial, industrial and transport sectors) and cooperation with ENTSO-E to use
TYNDP 2016 data within a power generation methodology (see Annex C4). The
bottom-up approach is based on TSO submission of gas demand figures for their
system for each scenario. This data is provided separately for final gas demand
(including the split between residential & commercial, industrial and transport
sectors where possible) and power generation sectors. The output of this process
was shared with stakeholders as part of a workshop which took place in July 2016,
designed to give early transparency on the input data that would be used for TYNDP
assessment.
TYNDP covers a geographical perimeter consisting of the EU-28 countries as well as
Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia (FYROM). For all the countries within the perimeter, gas demand was
collected in existing demand areas along with gasification demand
1)
. More details
are available in the country specifics document (Annex C1). In addition to this, the
Kaliningrad area of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are considered with their importa-
tion demand, which are exports from the EU and the TYNDP perimeter.
1) The gasification demand was provided for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Malta and Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia.