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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
ECONOMIC GROWTH
GREEN AMBITION
SLOW
PROGRESSION
BLUE
TRANSITION
GREEN
EVOLUTION
EU GREEN
REVOLUTION
Figure 2.21:
TYNDP 2017 Demand Scenario Axis Diagram
2.4 Demand scenarios
2.4.1 OVERVIEW
The long term evolution of gas demand depends on many factors, including demog-
raphy, macroeconomic parameters, energy and emissions prices as well as targets
set by energy and environmental policies.
The scenarios for TYNDP 2017 were initially developed by ENTSOG with the help of
TSO experts, to create an envelope of gas demand that would enable the TYNDP as-
sessment to test the infrastructure with a range of possible futures. Storylines and
parameters were established for each scenario and shared as part of the stakehold-
er joint working sessions, where feedback was incorporated into the development.
These would later form the guidelines for TSO to provide data that represented these
visions of the future in their country. Cooperation with ENTSO-E also enabled the
alignment of these scenarios with the visions presented as part of the electricity
TYNDP 2016.
2.4.2 KEY DRIVERS
In order to define the scenarios required for TYNDP 2017, two main axes were con-
sidered, Economic Growth and Green Ambition, as shown in figure 2.21. Along
these axes, four scenarios have been developed that range from Slow Progression
where there is little to no stimulus to change the energy sector radically from what
we see today, through to the green scenarios where decarbonisation targets have
caused fundamental changes to the energy landscape. There are two scenarios that
cover this, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution, the former which takes a na-
tional perspective and the latter that takes accelerated European or even global per-
spective on the energy transition, in light of recent developments such as the Paris
Agreement and the latest EU Climate Package. Green Evolution represents the
standard bottom-up data collection process from TSOs, with data for EU Green Rev-
olution being developed using a combined approach between TSO bottom-up data
and top-down adjustment with EU climate targets that could be achieved earlier
leading to a faster decline in gas consumption with which to perform TYNDP assess-
ment. More details on this methodology can be found in the Annex C4.
Blue Transition provides a view on the future that
ENTSOG believes has not been sufficiently explored or
considered by other organisations but offers a viable,
cost effective way of reducing emissions through using
as much of the existing energy infrastructure. This can
be achieved by gas:
\\
dominating fossil fuel power generation sector
through regulation
\\
having a high penetration in the Heavy Goods
Vehicles (HGV) and shipping transport sectors
\\
still providing large amount of heating require-
ments, especially in peak situations therefore
reducing the requirement for and cost related to
electricity grid expansion and reinforcement.