70 / 288
70 |
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
2.4.5 SCENARIO ALIGNMENT WITH EXTERNAL
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
TYNDP data is based on the expertise of gas TSOs. However, ENTSOG also uses the
expertise from other sources to provide information relating to the progression of
commodity prices and the development of the electricity sector under different
scenarios. As a result, TYNDP 2017 is aligned with two external publications that are
detailed below, which were discussed and supported during the stakeholder
engagement process.
2.4.5.1 Electricity Sector
In order to help create more consistent scenarios for power generation from gas,
data from the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2016 was used during the development process,
which included electricity demand, installed capacity, thermal efficiency and utilisa-
tion. This interaction is in line with the requirements of the EU Regulation 347/2013
(with reference to the interlinked model), and it will be further strengthened in future
editions of both the gas and electricity TYNDPs.
Each scenario of TYNDP 2017 is linked to demand for power generation relevant
to the Visions covered by ENTSO-E’s TYNDP 2016 (see Annex C3 for more details
about those visions):
\\
Vision 1 – “Slow Progression”
\\
Vision 3 – “Blue Transition”
\\
Vision 4 – “Green Evolution”
\\
Vision 4 – “EU Green Revolution”
The production from some electricity sources shows little sensitivity to market
conditions. That may be the case for nuclear production coming usually base load,
or RES like wind, hydro or solar where the production, having zero to low marginal
costs, will only depend on the availability of the driving source.
The share of other sources in the power generation mix will generally depend on the
market conditions. That is the clear case for coal and gas. Here the balance between
emissions price, coal price and gas price will favour the predominance of one source
against the other whenever both sources are available. There is a direct market
competition between coal-fired and gas-fired power generation.
Image courtesy of REN