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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Final gas demand for Green Evolution drops 12% by 2035 as energy efficiency sup-
presses any increases seen due to favourable economic output in the industrial sec-
tor. Electrical vehicle development subdues gas demand increase for transport and
residential & commercial sees significant reductions as decarbonisation of the heat-
ing sector develops.
EU Green Revolution is subject to an acceleration of the same developments seen
in Green Evolution after 2020. The result is a final gas demand reduction of 18% by
2035.
Sectoral
Driven by some of the factors described above, figure 2.25 displays the percentage
share of demand from each sector within final demand and how these change
between 2017 and 2035. Sectoral breakdown of final demand was provided by a
number of countries
1)
, so this data is not representative of the EU28+ as a whole.
Country level development on Final Gas Demand
Although the final demand development follows the expected trends at a EU28+
level, there are significant differences between the evolutions of demand at country
level. Figure 2.26 shows the percentage increase or decline seen on a country level
for each of the scenarios, which can be driven by a number of reasons, for example
increases seen in the Green scenarios can be down to the shift to gas from more
polluting fuels. For more information on the assumptions behind the country level
evolution of demand, please refer the Country Specifics document (Annex C1).
1) BA, BE, CZ, DE, DK, ES, GR, HR, IT, SK, UK
0
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
TWh/y
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
Slow Progression
EU Green Revolution
Green Evolution
Blue Transition
Figure 2.24:
Final gas demand