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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
2.5.1.2 High demand cases
Final demand levels for the peak day reflect the same order for the scenarios as seen
in the volume data, with the highest demand in Blue Transition through to the Green
scenarios at the lower end of the spectrum. However, all scenarios show a decreas-
ing trend ranging from -15% for Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution to rough-
ly a -7% change for both Blue Transition and Slow Progression by 2035.
Once again these trends do not necessarily reflect the differences between the
individual countries, for which the peak demand evolution between 2017 and 2035
varies between -50% and +57% depending on the scenario.
Figure 2.28 compares the final gas demand for the peak day and the 2-week high
demand case average daily demand with the yearly average daily demand. The
2-week high demand case follows the same decreasing trend as the peak day with
a reasonably consistent variance between the values of 19 to 20%.
Sectoral data
Peak demand in final demand sectors as shown in figure 2.29, reflects that regard-
less of the scenario, residential & commercial still dominates the percentage share
of demand in 2035 driven largely by the requirements for space heating. Sectoral
breakdown of final demand was provided by a number of countries
1)
so please note
this data is not representative of the EU28+ as a whole.
1) BA, BE, CZ, DE, DK, ES, GR, HR, IT, SK, UK
0
30,000
20,000
25,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
GWh/d
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
Green Evolution
GE Yearly Average
Blue Transition
BT Yearly Average
Slow Progression
SP Yearly Average
EU Green Revolution
EU GR Yearly Average
Figure 2.27:
Final peak gas demand