ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report |

Within the scenario storylines, there is a clear distinction between coal and gas merit

orders, with gas before coal on a regulatory basis in the Blue Transition and Green

scenarios. Due to the fuel and CO ² prices used in the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2016, this

merit order may not have been reflected within the modelling. As a result ENTSOG

has applied a methodology, the thermal gap approach, to help TSO’s use the data

from ENTSO-E to determine the gas demand required for power generation (see

Annex C4 for more details about this methodology).

The implementation of this methodology requires a significant number of assump-

tions, including electricity generation from alternative sources, the electricity

exchange with neighbouring countries, assumptions regarding the usage of CHP

(those facilities earn their money in both the heat and the electricity market) and

limitations in the utilisation of coal and gas. These assumptions are based on the

actual electricity mix, along with feedback from stakeholders and inputs from TSOs,

reflecting the specific factors for each country.

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

2015

2030 Vision 1

2030 Vision 3

2030 Vision 4

Nuclear

Wind

Coal

Gas

Others – RES

Hydro – pump

Biofuel

Others – Non RES

Hydro

Solar

Oil

Figure 2.22:

Power generation installed capacities for Vision 1 (Slow Progression),

Vision 3 (Blue Transition) and Vision 4 (Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution).

(Source: ENTSO-E)

Peak day and 2-week high demand cases

There are different assumptions on the climatic dependence of the generation data

between the defined probabilities of the high demand situations and those ones in

the available information. ENTSO-E market modelling uses a specific climatic year,

while the ENTSOG 2-week and peak day demand cases are representing 1-in-20 or

national design case situations. Therefore adequate data was requested by gas

TSOs during the data collection process.

The peak gas consumption is expected on a day of high electricity demand for which

the availability of variable sources is low. The gas consumption on a day when the

availability of variable sources is high allows the estimation of the flexibility required

from the gas system in order to compensate for variability.

1) For more details on the definition of high demand cases and how they are considered in the assessment, please refer to

Annex F: Methodology