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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
2.4.5.2 Commodity Prices
For each of the scenarios, ENTSOG has used the information provided by the IEA
World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2015, which considers the global context and devel-
opment that influences commodity prices.
This achieves a level of consistency with ENTSO-E which also used WEO as a source
for prices. Although the ENTSO-E electricity TYNDP 2016 used an older version
than what was available during the development of this TYNDP, analysis of the data
shows that the merit order between gas and coal is the same.
Table 2.5 summarises the alignment between the scenarios of the different
publications.
ENTSOG Scenario
ENTSO-E Vision
IEA Scenario
Slow Progression
Vision 1
WEO 2015 Current Policies
Blue Transition
Vision 3
WEO 2015 New Policies
Green Evolution
Vision 4
WEO 2015 450
EU Green Revolution
Vision 4
WEO 2015 450
Table 2.5:
Scenario alignment
0
40
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
€/MWh
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Gas WEO 2015
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)
0
40
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
€/MWh
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Gas WEO 2015
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)
0
100
60
80
40
20
€/t
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Coal WEO 2015
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)
Figure 2.23:
Prices for gas, coal and CO ² . Source IEA WEO 2015
0
40
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
€/MWh
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Coal WEO 2015
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)
0
120
100
60
80
40
20
€/t
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
CO
2
WEO 2015
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)
€/MWh
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
19.96 24.31 28.66 30.20 31.73
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
20.73 26.36 31.99 33.65 35.32
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green
Revolution/Vision 4)
19.19 21.62 24.06 23.42 22.78
€/t
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
70.50 73.50 76.50 78.75 81.00
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
74.25 80.25 86.25 89.25 92.25
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green
Revolution/Vision 4)
60.00 59.63 59.25 58.50 57.75
€/MWh
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
10.10 10.53 10.96 11.29 11.61
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
10.64 11.50 12.36 12.79 13.22
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green
Revolution/Vision 4)
8.60 8.54 8.49 8.38 8.28
€/t
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)
16.50 22.16 27.75 32.63 37.50
IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)
15.00 18.75 22.50 26.25 30.00
IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green
Revolution/Vision 4)
16.50 45.75 75.00 90.00 105.00