ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

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62 | Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
2.3.3 POWER
As previously covered in the current state section of the demand chapter, gas
continues to play a significant role with regards to power generation in the EU,
but coal has dominated production from fossil fuels in recent years due to market
conditions. Due to climate targets with a focus on reducing GHG emissions, there
has been a continual development of RES generation since the power generation
sector is considered to be able to reduce CO2 significantly compared to historic
levels by 2030 and onto 2050.
Natural gas, including carbon neutral green gas options such as biomethane, is a
cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels. It also offers a highly flexible back-up source
of generation to variable RES generation and through the vast energy storage capac-
ity of gas infrastructure it is a means of coping with seasonal variations and winter
peaks.
Although the exact mix of renewable generation that will be added to the EU system
is difficult to predict, it is likely to involve the continued development of sources of
variable RES generation in the form of solar and wind generation. When looking at
installed capacities in the visions from the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2016, potential capac-
ities in 2030 range between roughly double to triple the current capacity as shown
in figure 2.19.
This increase in capacity means the electricity transmission system will need to be
able to call upon high levels of dispatchable generation to balance the system. An
example of the steep ramp rates from wind generation that could be seen at time of
high demand can be seen in figure 2.20, with a loss of over 500 MW in an hour. This
may coincide with the more predictable rise in generation from solar if conditions are
suitable, but this is more of a challenge in winter especially for some countries.
Whilst some of this may be met by current hydro solutions or the development of
battery technology for short term storage, currently the most viable option both in
terms of costs, reliability and flexibility is represented by natural gas.
With this potentially high gas demand variability, and to compensate for the unpre-
dictability of variable RES, the gas system will have to have sufficient flexibility to pro-
vide quick and flexible reaction. This increased requirement for system and supply
flexibility should drive an increase in both flexible supply sources and interconnec-
tion of markets to ensure the availability of flexibility in the areas where it is required.
Depending on the role of gas fired power plants between either back-up/peak situ-
ations or higher load factors, open cycle gas turbine (OCGT) with lower efficiency but
shorter lead times may become more economical compared to high efficient closed
cycle gas turbine (CCGT) but both are predicted to offer significantly lower capex
investment than alternative fuel sources.1)
Other considerations in the power generation sector involve the Power to Gas tech-
nologies which convert renewable electrical power into hydrogen which can subse-
quently be turned into synthetic methane. This provides enhanced flexibility to the
electricity system as gas infrastructure benefits from its energy storage potential and
contributes towards an efficient utilisation of energy infrastructures. More details
about Power to Gas may be found in the Energy Transition Chapter of this report.
1)