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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
6.5 Impact of the projects on
the second PCI list
This section assesses the impact of projects from
the second list of Projects of Common Interest.
The benefits of 2
nd
PCI list projects having a FID
status are already covered in the assessment of the
Low infrastructure level, where improvement in 2020
compared to 2017 in particular relates to a number of
projects listed on the 2
nd
PCI list.
This section focuses on the benefits of 2
nd
PCI list projects without a FID status yet,
independently from their advancement status
1)
. The identification of infrastructure
gaps in the low infrastructure level (section 6.3) forms the basis for this impact
assessment.
The relevant projects for this infrastructure level can be found in Annex A, the rele-
vant capacities in Annex D
2)
.
As a general result the implementation of all projects in the second PCI list would be
a significant contribution in strengthening the European gas infrastructure.
These results cannot be directly compared to those of the advanced infrastructure
level as on one hand a number of advanced projects are not part of the 2
nd
PCI list,
and on the other hand a number of 2
nd
PCI list projects do not have an advanced
status. The assessment will nevertheless focus on where 2
nd
PCI list projects bring
further benefits compared to advanced projects.
6.5.1 SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Belarus transit disruption
In the Low infrastructure level and Blue Transition scenario, Poland and the Baltic
States were facing a risk of demand disruption on the long run in case of Belarus
transit. The additional infrastructure with a PCI status remedies this risk mainly
thanks to the new infrastructure linking Poland to other countries: It allows Poland
to access additional gas and to support the Baltic States.
Ukrainian transit route disruption
The advanced projects were mitigating but no completely solving the situation in
case of Ukrainian transit disruption. By 2030 PCI 2
nd
list projects allow to handle
most of the demand disruptions. Most of the countries have also a high remaining
flexibility. The commissioning of PCI 2
nd
list projects would also significantly improve
the situation for Romania: in the Blue Transition scenario, the demand disruption
rate would decrease from around 25% in the low infrastructure level (and around
20% in the advanced infrastructure level) to less than 10%. The situation would be
further mitigated if the Romanian indigenous production increase reported for
earlier years would be maintained over time.
1) See chapter Infrastructure Projects for the definition of the infrastructure levels.
2) Sheets LNG, Storage and Transmission, “Low” in column I