ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report |

2.7 Comparison with other

demand scenarios

ENTSOG has compared the demand scenarios for

TYNDP 2017 with those produced by other organisations

as a benchmarking exercise. Assumptions underlying

these scenarios are given below:

IEA World Energy Outlook 2015:

New Policies, Current Policies and 450 Scenario (IEA, 2015)

Current policies (CPS):

This scenario only considers policies which implement-

ing measures had been formally adopted (as of mid-2015) along with the

assumption that these will remain unchanged.

New policies (NPS):

This scenario, in addition to the considerations for the cur-

rent policies, adds relevant policy intentions that have been announced even if

they have not yet been fully defined. For example this includes the Intended

Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted in October 2015 by

governments in the lead up to COP21. Policies are introduced in a cautious

manner relating to renewable energy, energy efficiency, alternative fuels in

transport, carbon pricing, energy subsidies and the future of nuclear power.

450 Scenario (450 S):

This scenario takes the goal of limiting the increase in

the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius by assuming a range of

policies that reduce GHG emissions to a stable concentration of 450 parts per

million by 2100.

European Commission – EU Reference Scenario 2016 –

Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions – Trends to 2050

The EU Reference Scenario

is a projection of where the current set of policies

coupled with market trends are likely to lead. The EU has set ambitious objectives

for 2020, 2030 and 2050 on climate and energy, so the Reference Scenario allows

policy makers to analyse the long-term economic, energy, climate and transport

outlook based on the current policy framework.

Despite a projected decrease in EU fossil fuel production, net fuel imports will

decrease and the EU’s import dependency will only slowly increase over the

projected period. That is mainly due to the higher share of renewable energy

sources (RES) and significant energy efficiency improvements, while nuclear

production remains stable.

The EU power generation mix will change considerably in favour of renewables.

Gas maintains its role in the power generation mix in 2030, at slightly higher

levels compared to 2015, but other fossil fuels will see their share decrease.

There will be significant energy efficiency improvements, driven mainly by

policy up to 2020 and then by market/technology trends post-2020. Primary

energy demand and GDP will continue to decouple.

1) The “EU Reference Scenario 2016 – Energy, transport and GHG emissions - Trends to 2050” publication report describes

in detail the analytical approach followed, the assumptions taken and the detailed results.