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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
2.6.2 GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS
The climate targets apply to overall GHG emissions, including the emissions
associated with all energy consumption, including households, industry and
transportation. The estimation of CO ² emissions in TYNDP 2017 only relate to the
gas final demand and the power generation sector relating to gas, coal, oil and
other non-RES.
For the power generation sector, the demand scenarios use the thermal gap
methodology (see Annex C4), where gas and coal are in competition and as such
ENTSOG analyses the impact this competition has on emissions depending which
fuel is in favour. Demand for oil in power generation has been considered as constant
according to the methodology. Further details of what constitutes Other Non-RES
are not available so ENTSOG is considering an average emission factor based on the
other fossil fuels.
To calculate the emissions in ENTSOG demand scenarios, the following emission
factors and efficiencies have been used:
CONSIDERED EMISSION AND EFFICIENCY FACTORS
FOR THE DIFFERENT FUELS FOR POWER GENERATION
FUEL
CO ²
Output
EFFICIENCY
GAS
200
kg/MWh
50%
COAL
350
kg/MWh
35%
OIL
280
kg/MWh
35%
OTHER NON-RES
277
kg/MWh
37%
Table 2.6:
Considered emission and efficiency factors for the different fuels for power generation
(Source: Based on data from IPCC and IEA)
Annual emissions have also been calculated for the final energy consumption from
gas and fossil fuel power generation data in the report “EC EU Reference Scenario
2016 – Energy, transport and GHG emissions – Trends to 2050” published by
DGENERGY released in July 2016, using the same factors to offer a comparison.
Power Generation
In the power generation sector, all demand scenarios are showing significant reduc-
tions in yearly CO ² emissions except in the Slow Progression, as shown in figure
2.42.
Apart from the initial few years of the time period, Blue Transition shows the least
emissions from fossil fuel generation, as the highest gas demand for power genera-
tion forces out coal and also impacts generation requirements from other non-RES
sources. However, it should be noted that in Green Evolution and EU Green Revolu-
tion, the storylines include some Carbon Capture Storage or Utilisation, which are
expected to reduce the amount of CO ² released to the atmosphere and explain the
marginally higher coal usage in the power sector. Emissions plateau after 2030 is
largely due to the extrapolation of ENTSO-E Vision data.