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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report |
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Total Gas Demand and Power Generation
When combining the sectors of power generation and gas final demand, the reduced
volumes required for final demand in the Green scenarios means that both overtake
Blue Transition in decarbonisation terms. The EU Reference Scenario is showing
less gas demand in the sectors making up final demand than all of the ENTSOG
scenarios and as a result now shows a significant move towards the Blue and Green
scenarios, away from Slow Progression.
When considering the total demand, the data collected from TSO regarding the
development of biomethane as a green gas supply can be applied; this makes
minimal change regarding Slow Progression but reduces emissions more signifi-
cantly in the other scenarios as shown in figure 2.44. For further information
concerning the production of biomethane, please refer to the Supply Chapter.
Again it is worth noting that in the Green scenarios CCS or CCU would have the
potential to reduce emissions further in these scenarios if applied in the power and
industrial sectors.
600
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
CO
2
mt per year
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
Slow Progression
EU Green Revolution
Green Evolution
Blue Transition
Slow Prog-BM
EU Green Rev-BM
Green Evo-BM
Blue Tran-BM
EU Ref 2016
Figure 2.44:
Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation sector and gas final demand
Looking at 2030, Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution offer
reductions in CO ² emissions of 41%, 42% and 46% respectively. When comparing
to the EU target of a 40% reduction compared to 1990 levels, all scenarios apart from
Slow Progression go beyond this level.
0
1,000
500
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990
Slow
Progression
Blue
Transition
Green
Evolution
EU Green
Revolution
CO
2
Emission (mt/y)
21%
41%
42%
46%
mt/y
Figure 2.45:
Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation and gas final demand sectors