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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
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Transport activity shows significant growth, with the highest increase during
2010–2030, driven by developments in economic activity. The decoupling be-
tween energy consumption and activity is projected to continue and even to
intensify in the future.
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Decarbonisation of the energy system progresses, but falls short of agreed long-
er term climate objectives. Total GHG emissions are projected to be 26% below
1990 levels in 2020, 35% below by 2030 and 48% by 2050. The share of
renewables in the energy mix will continue to grow, from 21% in 2020 to 24%
in 2030 and 31% in 2050.
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Non-CO ² emissions decrease until 2030 even more strongly than CO ² emis-
sions, by 29% below 2005 levels in 2030 (–46% compared to 1990 levels).
The net sink provided by the land use, land use change and forestry sector
declines from –299Mt CO ² eq. in 2005 to –288Mt CO ² -eq in 2030, mainly with
the sink in existing forests decreasing, but partly compensated by other activi-
ties such as afforestation.
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Energy-related investment expenditures increase substantially until 2020,
driven by RES and energy efficiency developments. Overall energy system costs
increase from 11.2% of EU GDP in 2015 to about 12.3% of EU GDP by 2020,
also driven by projected rising fossil fuel prices. They stabilise at such levels
until 2030 and decrease thereafter, reaping the benefits of the investments
made.
Figure 2.47 displays the yearly volume for total gas demand for these external
scenarios and the ENTSOG scenarios across the assessment period. Different
assumptions and modelling techniques will always lead to variances in output, as
can be seen from the differing demand evolution shown between the
WEO CPS
after
2020 and the EU Reference scenario, despite the fact they are both based on
current policies.
Slow Progression
represents the ENTSOG scenario with the least
change from today, and this follows a similar profile to the reference case, although
with lower level of demand across the assessment period.
Blue Transition
is a scenario that ENTSOG believes offers a worthwhile and credible
view of the future with reduced emissions, that is not currently being appropriately
assessed by other organisations in consideration of its environmental and econom-
ic benefits. This is reflected in its deviation from other scenarios, although it does
follow a similar evolution to
WEO NPS
, albeit with a higher level of demand from
2025 onwards.
The
WEO CPS
exceeds Blue Transition demand levels from 2020 and although
these two scenarios have fundamental differences in their storylines, it reinforces the
need to assess infrastructure at this demand level.
WEO 450S
and the
Green Evolution
scenarios are comparable until 2030. After this
point, gas demand decreases in the 450S due to a reduction in the power sector
partly due to RES, but also significant amounts of nuclear generation.
EU Green
Revolution
has the lowest demand trend of all the scenarios until 2035.
The TYNDP 2017 scenarios indicate different possible paths for the overall gas
demand, where achieving the European energy and climate 2030 targets could
either be met with a continued decrease or a limited rebound of the demand.
The Slow Progression demand level falls within the range of the other scenarios and
as a result, the TYNDP assessment will only cover the three on target scenarios.
The comparisons in figure 2.47 were presented during the stakeholder and trans-
parency processes for the TYNDP. However, just prior to the draft TYNDP 2017
release in December 2016, the WEO 2016 publication became available. As a
result, ENTSOG has provided a table to show how these scenarios have evolved.
For gas demand, the trends are similar to the previous edition. There is an increase
in demand across all WEO 2016 scenarios in 2020, bringing them all into line with
the demand seen in the Blue Transtion scenario. WEO 2016 450S has a reduced
gas demand in 2030 and 2040, taking it beyond EU Green Revolution a year earli-
er in 2034 and more aggressively after that date.