Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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4 - Morning Commute Management Considering Commuters’
Aversion to Credit Loss
Mohammad Miralinaghi, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN,
47906, United States of America,
, Srinivas Peeta
Under the tradable credit scheme, this study analyzes commuters’ departure time
choices considering their aversion to credit loss. The analysis helps in determining
credit price to manage morning commute congestion. The existence and
uniqueness of the equilibrium credit price are investigated and a linear model is
developed to obtain system optimum credit allocation and charging schemes.
5 - Effect of Glare on Shoulder-mounted Guide Sign Visibility
Mohammed Obeidat, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS,
66502, United States of America, ,
Malgorzata Rys
Glare is a serious concern in roadway safety during nighttime driving. Shoulder-
mounted guide sign visibility will be evaluated under presence of glare in a field
experiment using different retroreflective sheeting. Several variables will be
considered. Data will be analyzed statistically to determine the significant
variables that contribute to sign’s visibility.
SD63
63-Room 112B, CC
Nicholson Student Paper Competition II
Cluster: Nicholson Student Paper Competition
Invited Session
Chair: Mark Squillante, IBM Research, Thomas J. Watson Research
Center, 1101 Kitchawan Road, Yorktown Heights, NY,
United States of America,
1 - Nicholson Student Paper Competition
Illya Hicks, Rice University, 6100 Main MS-134, Houston, TX,
77005, United States of America,
This session highlights the finalists for the 2015 George Nicholson Student Paper
Competition.
SD64
64-Room 113A, CC
Value of Information
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Debarun Bhattacharjya, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center,
1101 Kitchawan Road, Rt. 134, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598,
United States of America,
1 - Balancing Research and Funding Needs: Value of Information and
Portfolio Tools for Nano Risk Decisions
Matthew Bates, Research Engineer, US Army Corps of Engineers,
Engineer R&D Center, 696 Virginia Rd, Concord, MA, 01742,
United States of America, ,
Jeffrey Keisler, Niels Zussblatt, Kenton Plourde, Ben Wender,
Igor Linkov
Nanotechnologies are economically and technically promising yet pose risks.
Research may identify risks and paths to make technologies less hazardous or
more acceptable. Given limited resources, funders need to prioritize research
efforts. Current prioritization is done primarily thorough committee or executive
decision. We apply value of information and portfolio analysis techniques to
develop an efficient frontier of hazard research sets across three prominent
nanomaterials (Ag, TiO2, MWCNTs).
2 - Scoring Rules, Value of Information, and Sensitivity Analysis
Victor Richmond Jose, Georgetown University, 544 Hariri Bldg,
37th & O Sts NW, Washington, DC, United States of America,
, Emanuele Borgonovo, Gordon Hazen,
Elmar Plischke
Scoring rules & value of information (VOI) are useful tools in decision analysis
that measure the information content of data. In this talk we bridge these two
seemingly separate areas of research. We obtain analytic expressions for VOI
associated with some scoring rules and show that the resulting VOI sensitivity
measures are global sensitivity measures that fall in a common rationale. We
study this common rationale & obtain conditions that characterize properties of
these sensitivity measures.
3 - Valuing Data: A Closed Form Solution for the Expected Value of
Sample Information
Adam Fleischhacker, Assistant Professor Of Operations
Management, University of Delaware, 222 Lerner Hall, Newark,
DE, 19716, United States of America, ,
Pak-wing Fok, Mokshay Madiman
We present a method for valuing sample data prior to its collection. This valuation
is given in closed-form and is flexible enough to mimic multiple decision making
contexts. Compared to existing techniques, it provides tighter estimates of
information value, insight as to the conditions under which data is valuable, and
insight into the amount of data required to achieve certain levels of value.
4 - Preference Elicitation Schemes, Random Utility Models and the
Value of Information
Debarun Bhattacharjya, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, 1101
Kitchawan Road, Rt. 134, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, United
States of America, , Stephane Deparis
Behavioral research indicates that when posed with preference elicitation queries,
people provide inconsistent responses that depend on contextual factors. Random
utility models have been proposed as a potential way to represent such
inconsistencies. In this talk, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian approach where
the system is uncertain about the noise in a decision maker’s responses to queries,
and present a methodology to compute the value of information from various
elicitation schemes.
SD65
65-Room 113B, CC
Decision Analysis in Procurements and Procurement
Auctions
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Janne Kettunen, Assistant Professor, The George Washington
University, 2201 G Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20052,
United States of America,
1 - Evaluating Technology Readiness for Adoption and Integration at
Navy Installations
Eva Regnier, Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, 699
Dyer Road, Monterey, CA, 93943, United States of America,
Robert Barron, Daniel Nussbaum
While the DOD has adopted and adapted NASA’s technology readiness level (TRL)
definitions in many contexts to measure its technologies’ progress, the
achievement of high TRL levels has not necessarily led to adoption operationally.
We propose a measure of the progress in removing specific barriers to technology
adoption and integration in Navy installations that includes criteria for technical
readiness, as well as stakeholder acceptance and removal of barriers to
procurement.
2 - Scheduling Procurement Auctions
Janne Kettunen, Assistant Professor, The George Washington
University, 2201 G Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20052, United
States of America, Young Kwak
We derive conditions when scheduling procurement auctions impacts
significantly on their expected costs. To help the procurement auction owner in
scheduling the auctions, we develop a non-linear integer programming model,
which we reformulate as a mixed integer programming problem to make it
computationally amenable. We apply the model for the Florida Department of
Transportation procurement auction data. Our results indicate that the optimal
schedule can provide substantial cost savings.
3 - Decision Analysis Concepts in Public Procurement
Jay Simon, American University,
Decision analysis can play a significant role in helping carry out public
procurement effectively. Public procurement decisions often require assessing
preferences over multiple attributes. There may also be uncertainty regarding one
or more elements of the process. Recent work has examined some of the unique
challenges in public procurement, and how decision analysis techniques can be
used to improve outcomes.
4 - On the Inefficiency of Multiattribute Auctions for Post-Auction
Produced Goods
Gregory Kersten, Prof, Concordia University, 1455 De
Maisonneuve Blvd. W, 1450 Guy Street, Montreal, Qu, H3H 0A1,
Canada,
Multiattribute auctions are used to procure heterogeneous products. If they are
produced post-auction, then the price and other attributes are interrelated and
the assumption of the buyers’ and the sellers’ quasi-linearity utility does not hold.
The implication is that while winning bids may be efficient solutions the auctions
are inefficient mechanisms. The inefficiency and the possibility of improving the
winning efficient bids via the side payment is illustrated with Cobb-Douglass
economy.
SD63