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Botswana
1981-1984
20% of national herd
Niger
1982-1984
62% of national cattle herd
Northern Kenya
1991
28% of cattle, 18% of sheep
and goats
Namibia
1993
22% of cattle, 41% of goats
and sheep
Greater Horn of Africa
1995-1997
20% of cattle
20% of sheep and goats
Southern Ethiopia
1983-1984
45-90% of cattle
18% of sheep and goats
1991-1993
42% of cattle
1995-1997
46% of cattle
41% of sheep and goats
1998-1999
62% of cattle
Figure 22: Impacts on drought on livestock numbers in selected African countries.
(Source: IPCC, 2007).
to such events. For example, nine major droughts in selected
African countries between 1981 and 2000 resulted in an aver-
age livestock loss of 40%, with a range of 22–90% (Figure 22).
Similar effects may be observed on crop production. Based on
the extent of irrigated cropland impacted in Asia and increas-
ing water scarcity as a result of extreme weather, an annual re-
duction in the future from climate-induced water scarcity and
decreasing water tables may account for an estimated reduc-
tion of the world food production by 1.5% by 2030 and at least
5% by 2050.
Water scarcity in terms of drought or depleted groundwater
could therefore have great impacts on livestock and range-
lands. These interactions are also complex. While drought can
directly threaten livestock, other factors that influence water
availability for livestock are seasonal droughts and socio-eco-
nomic changes, such as permanent settlement and occupation
of seasonal pastures by people other than pastoralists, avail-
ability and quality of rangelands, livestock numbers and man-
agement approaches.
The combined effects of melting of glaciers, seasonal floods
and overuse of ground and surface water for industry, settle-
ments and irrigation, combined with poor water-use efficiency
are difficult to estimate. However, given that 40% of the world’s
crop yields are based on irrigation, and almost half of this from
the basins of rivers originating in the Himalayas alone, the ef-
fect of water scarcity can be substantial.