180 / 232
180 |
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
6.4.4 GEOGRAPHICAL PERSPECTIVE OF THE SUPPLY SOURCE
PRICE DIVERSIFICATION
In order to give a geographical view of the supply source price diversification for
each country, an aggregated index was defined as the number of import sources
influencing the gas bill of each country. Influence of the indigenous production is
not considered here. This diversification should not be interpreted as a physical ac-
cess to the sources.
For most of the countries the supply price diversification remains stable across the
time horizon with a significant reaction (SSPDi above twenty percent) to three
sources notwithstanding the embedded diversification of LNG. These homogenous
results are influenced by the assumption of perfect market conditions and non-sim-
ultaneity of the diversification. The countries being influenced by less than three
sources are:
\\
Portugal and Spain with a significant reaction to LNG and Algerian gas
\\
Greece with a significant reaction to LNG and Russian gas
\\
Baltic countries, Bulgaria and FYROM with a significant reaction
to Russian gas
Only Italy, Slovenia and Croatia are significantly influenced by four sources. The
considered import capacity from Libyan and Caspian sources is not sufficient to
reach the twenty percent threshold.
Under the High scenario, the commissioning of LNG projects in the Baltic region
and South-Eastern Europe improves the situation with a better reaction to LNG
prices. The conjunction of new interconnection projects and lower European de-
mand in the Grey scenario will further improve the diversification of the less inter-
connected regions such as the Baltic, South-Eastern Europe and Iberian Peninsula.
The commissioning of Non-FID projects enables the further spread of Algerian gas
influence to Switzerland and France as well as Caspian gas influence in South-East-
ern Europe. Under the Grey scenario the combined effects of a lower gas demand
level and a better interconnection enables the influence of Russian and Norwegian
gas to spread as far as the Iberian Peninsula.
Cyprus shows the same supply price diversification as Greece as the marginal price
of its production is set by this downstream market.
The results of this diversification assessment differ from the analysis of supply diver-
sification in TYNDP 2013 because they are now based on a price approach with a
20% reaction threshold which is not equivalent to a 20% physical supply share of
the source.