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TYNDP 2015 Main Report

1

Table of Content

5

Foreword

6

Executive Summary

8

1 Introduction

16

2 ­Infrastructure

20

2.1 Introduction

21

2.2 Gas infrastructures and ­European energy policy

21

2.3 Data collection process

22

2.4 Projects of Common Interest

23

2.5 Analysis of project ­submission

23

3 Barriers to ­investment

28

3.1 Introduction

29

3.2 Overall impact of energy policies

29

3.3 Project promoter ­perspective policies

29

3.4 TSO ­perspective

33

4 Demand

34

4.1 Introduction

35

4.2 Current State

36

4.3 Demand scenarios

46

4.4 Climate and energy policies

64

4.5 Comparison with other ­demand outlooks

71

5 Supply

74

5.1 Introduction

75

5.2 Historic supply trend

77

5.3 Supply scenarios

82

5.4 Aggregate potential supply to Europe

128

5.5 Supply Adequacy Outlook

130

6 Assessment

132

6.1 Introduction

133

6.2 General Trend

134

6.3 Infrastructure Resilience

145

6.4 Influence of supply sources

158

6.5 Monetization

186

6.6 Price convergence

197

6.7 Analysis of the PCI Infrastructure scenario

202

6.8 Conclusion

204

7 Conclusions

206

7.1 Introduction

207

7.2 Stakeholder engagement process

207

7.3 From projects to ­commissioned infrastructure

208

7.4 A stable demand driven by global context

209

7.5 Europe needs to enlarge its supply portfolio

210

7.6 Market integration, a constant challenge

211

7.7 Way forward

212

Definitions

214

Abbreviations

217

Country Codes ( ISO )

218

List of Tables

218

List of Figures

220

Bibliography

226

Legal Disclaimer

228

List of Annexes

230