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4.5 Comparison with other
demand outlooks
ENTSOG has considered other demand scenarios to
assess the supply/demand balance on an annual basis.
Assumptions underlying these scenarios are given
below:
IEA New Policies, Current Policies and 450 Scenario
(IEA, 2013)
\\
New policies (NPS):
national energy strategies following new and existing
environmental measures and policies with the support of renewable energy,
improvement of energy efficiency, development of alternative fuels and vehicles
accompanied by an increase of the carbon price.
\\
Current policies (CPS):
national energy strategies following already enacted
policies and measures as of mid-2013 and do not implementing new environ-
mental commitments or introducing new. Established trends in energy demand
and supply continue. Carbon prices increase in time but remain on a lower level
than in the new policies.
\\
450 Scenario (450 S):
national energy strategies following a course compati-
ble with a near 50% change of limiting the long-term increase in the average
global temperature to two degrees Celsius. This scenario represents a concen-
tration level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere which prevails in the middle
of this century. Carbon prices assumed to increase 3-times respectively 4-times
in comparison to the scenario of the current policies.
Eurogas Long Term Outlook for Gas to 2035:
Base Case, Environmental Case and Slow Development Case
\\
Base Case:
current national energy strategies and policies are prevailing with
little or no future investments in the gas sector in most parts of Europe in the
next five to ten years.
\\
Environmental Case:
energy strategies focusing on a rebalancing in the energy
mix and fostering more renewables and slightly less nuclear energy. Economic
growth and a high innovation rate focusing on energy efficiency especially in
home gas appliances and office heating characterize this scenario.
\\
Slow Development Case:
gas is becoming less competitive as a result of global
developments. Environmental policies remain hostile to gas, almost no innova-
tion in energy efficiencies as well as weaker industrial performance in Europe.