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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
GW
2015
V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3
2020
2025
2030
2035
RES
Other sources
Figure 4.36:
RES installed generation capacities (left) and RES annual power generation (right)
0
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
TWh
e
/y
2015
V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3 V1 V3
2020
2025
2030
2035
RES
Other sources
4.4.1
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN
ENTSOG’S SCENARIOS
4.4.1.1 Power generation from RES sources
The following figures show the evolution of the RES installed generation capacities
and its share in power generation, including hydro, wind onshore and offshore and
solar, based on ENTSOG’s assumptions on the yearly load-factor of the different
sources
1)
.
Installed RES generation capacities increase significantly under both scenarios
between 2015 and 2035 (42% in Vision 1 and 101% in Vision 3). The relatively low
yearly load-factors expected for some RES along with the increase in electricity
demand limit the role of RES in the generation mix to 28% in Vision 1 and to 35%
in Vision 3 by 2035. Both factors lead to a significant need for other sources
compensating these effects.
4.4.1.2 Gas as back-up for RES variability
The variable RES installed generation capacities (solar and wind) will significantly
increase over the next 20 years according to Vision 1 and Vision 3 defined by
ENTSO-E. This is especially the case under Vision 3, where the aggregated installed
capacity for solar and wind power (both onshore and offshore) will almost triple from
2015 to 2035.
Consequently, the gas demand necessary to compensate for the variability of RES is
expected to increase accordingly. The magnitude of this variability has been estimat-
ed on the basis of the expected maximum and minimum daily load-factors for these
sources at country level and aggregated to a European level to represent the daily
variability. The maximum and minimum daily load-factors have been estimated by
TSOs on the basis of actual behavior of existing sources between 2009 and 2012.
1) The applied methodology does not allow the quantification of the generation of other RES sources such as biomass, that
consequently fall within the category “others”.