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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
2,000
1,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
7,500
6,500
6,000
1,500
500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
TWh/y
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
ENTSOG lower range
ENTSOG range under TSOs scenarios (final+power)
ENTSOG upper range
Eurogas: Base (EU-28 adapted)
IEA NPS
IEA CPS
IEA 450 S
DGENER trends to 2050
Eurogas: Envt. (EU-28 adapted)
Eurogas: Slow Dev. (EU-28 adapted)
Figure 4.43:
Comparison of ENTSOG’s gas demand projections with other projections
DGENER Energy trends to 2050 (update Dec 2013) –
Reference Case
This scenario is based on the assumption that the legally binding GHG and RES
targets for 2020 will be achieved and that policies on energy efficiency, which were
agreed at EU level in spring 2012, will be implemented in the member states. In
comparison to the former 2009 update, a faster development in solar and photo
voltaic (PV) technologies is expected. Slower developments for carbon capture and
storage (CCS) and off-shore wind technologies are assumed. Nuclear power gener-
ation and its respective safety and security requirements are treated more tightly as
international events such as the Fukushima accident have changed the perception
of this technology. This scenario also includes the latest trends on population and
economic developments in Europe.
The following figure shows the comparison between the range defined by ENTSOG’s
scenarios and the different scenarios described above. Most of the scenarios driven
by environmental targets (DGENER Energy trends to 2050 and IEA 450 scenario)
follow a trend which leads to lower levels than the long term ENTSOG scenario
range. The IEA NPS is within the upper range of the ENTSOG’s scenarios, whereas
the IEA CPS reaches a higher level than the Green scenario post 2028.