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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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7.6 Market integration,
a constant challenge
ENTSOG has implemented in this TYNDP the CBA
methodology published in summer 2014 and approved
by the European Commission in February 2015. It brings
further the concept of infrastructure-related market
integration capturing its benefits through a new series
of indicators.
These indicators aim at signalling the availability and origin of supply and identify
possible lack of infrastructures. As required by the TEN-E Regulation indicators now
also cover the price dimension of gas, coal and CO
2
emissions.
For 2015, results confirm that market integration is a reality for a large part of
Europe. This is confirmed by the actual price convergence in large part of Western
Europe as well as the increasing price correlation across the continent. In fact the
effect could be more visible if the European regulatory framework would be fully
implemented. Nevertheless other regions suffer from a lack of sufficient integration
or even from isolation. Such situation translates into high supply dependence on
Russian gas in the Baltic region, Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe and to
LNG in the Iberian Peninsula and South of France. The Baltic region and South-
Eastern Europe are still vulnerable to a disruption of the transit of Russian gas
through Belarus and/or Ukraine.
On the medium term the commissioning of already decided project will slightly
improve the situation. But many more investment decisions are required to have an
Integrated Energy Market covering all EU Member States.
After 2025 the situation changes, especially under the Green demand scenario, with
a much tighter supply and demand balance. The whole Europe would then risk to
become strongly dependent on both Russian gas and LNG. Given Europe situation
of price-taker on the LNG market, it would put the continent under the influence of
few external producers. This situation is consistent with the overall supply adequa-
cy as analysed in the Supply chapter. Only access to new indigenous or pipe-bound
sources will mitigate this dependence.