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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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Image courtesy of Gasum
7.4 A stable demand driven by
global context
The evolution of gas demand is the main source of uncertainty for the gas industry.
For this purpose ENTSOG has developed for the first time two demand scenarios
reflecting different situations:
\\
a Green scenario reflecting positive economic situation, commodity prices
favouring gas against coal and a strong development of RES power generation
requiring the parallel development of flexible generation
\\
a Grey scenario reflecting an opposite situation
Considering that since 2010, European gas demand has continuously decreased
mostly under the effect of a reduced share of gas for the power generation, particu-
lar attention was paid to the modelling of this sector. Therefore ENTSOG has
developed an approach, based on ENTSO-E data, defining the share of gas for
power generation on the basis of the electricity demand, generation mix and prices
of gas, coal and CO
2
. The Green scenario starts with a higher demand level. Then
both scenarios show an average growth rate of about 0.4% per year on the 21-year
time horizon.