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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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4.1 Introduction
The demand chapter provides an outlook of the
European gas demand for the period 2015–2035 from
an ENTSOG perspective. This chapter has two specific
aims. The first is to provide demand scenarios for the
supply adequacy outlook as stipulated in REG 715/2009.
The second is to provide the detailed demand data used
for the network modelling.
The demand scenarios show the evolution of the gas demand on a yearly basis.
Whilst this information facilitates the comparability between scenarios, it is hourly or
daily demand which are the key parameters for network design and operation. The
demand scenarios, on a single day or over a sustained period, indicate the capaci-
ty a transmission system must be able to provide. This information is vital for the safe
and sustainable operation of a transmission system. ENTSOG has defined these
scenarios as the combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches. The top-
down approach is based on macro-economic parameters for the final gas demand
scenarios (residential, commercial and industrial sectors). The power generation
component has been calculated using an agreed ENTSOG methodology based on
ENTSO-E’s TYNDP 2014 scenarios and factoring in gas TSO feedback. The bottom-
up approach is based on TSO submission of gas demand figures for their system
under each scenario. This data is provided separately for final gas demand and pow-
er generation sectors. ENTSOG has collected and aggregated these figures to pro-
duce the demand scenarios.
TYNDP covers all EU Member States plus adjacent countries that have a current or
planned gas market and have provided data to ENTSOG. In addition some areas of
the EU such as the islands of Sardinia and Elba in Italy and Corsica in France do not
have access to the European gas network. Due to the complexity of the modelling
assessment they have not been included. Specific gas demand figures have been
submitted for these areas, and are included in the Annex C2 for potential ad-hoc
evaluation of projects linking these areas with the European gas system. The same
applies to Albania.