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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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0
50
100
150
250
200
GW
2010
2012
Gas
Hard Coal
Lignite
Oil
Mixed
Other
Figure 4.5:
Evolution of net generating capacity for fossil fuel power in 2010 and 2012
(Source Yearly Statistics & Adequacy Retrospect 2012 ENTSO-E, ENTSOG depiction)
0
10
20
5
15
25
30
40
35
€/MWh
Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 July 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 July 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 July 14 Sep 14 Nov 14
Coal (CIF ARA spot)
Gas (NBP day-ahead)
Figure 4.6:
Evolution of European spot prices for gas and coal (Source Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets, DG Energy,
volume 6 (Q3/Q4 2013) and volume 7 (Q1/Q2 2014), ENTSOG depiction)
One reason for the ongoing high use of coal for power generation, at the expense of
gas, is the price difference between the two fuels. Considering data from DG Energy,
the European coal price has shown a stable downward trend in recent years. This
trend has accelerated with a 25% decrease between January 2012 and November
2014. Gas prices have been at a higher level in the same period. This large price
difference might continue as long as the US benefits from the shale gas boom,
which has reduced their domestic coal demand. At the same time the Asian region
is showing a moderate growth in coal demand. A reversal of this trend cannot be
excluded, and could be induced by several factors including:
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Increasing world-wide liquefaction capacity and especially in the US
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A gradual re-commissioning of nuclear power stations in Japan
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Enhanced competition between gas producers
This would result in a reduced LNG price differential between the EU and the Asian
gas markets and increasing competitiveness of gas as a power generation fuel.