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Image courtesy of FGSZ
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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
Table 4.3:
2009 – 2014 peak gas consumptions and their simultaneity
4.2.2.2 Split by country
For most countries the highest daily consumption over the last five winters
1)
was
reached during winter 2011/12. There are a few exceptions: in Portugal and Finland
it was reached during winter 2010/11, whereas in Bulgaria, Ireland, Spain, Sweden,
and United Kingdom it was reached during winter 2009/10.
4.2.2.3 Simultaneity
All countries across Europe may not reach their expected highest level of demand
on the same day. In order to measure the simultaneity between the peak days in
different countries, ENTSOG calculates the European peak simultaneity (EPS). This
is the ratio of the aggregated European Peak Demand and the sum of all individual
country peak demands having occurred non-simultaneously:
EPS = European Peak Demand /Non-simultaneous Peak (%)
Over the past five winters the observed simultaneity in gas consumptions has been
high: it has ranged between 93% and 97%. These high levels of observed simul
taneity show no clear case for considering lower levels, when carrying out peak
planning analysis, as this would run the risk of underplaying security of supply.
Consequently, ENTSOG has retained a 100% simultaneity planning assumption.
2009–2014 PEAK GAS CONSUMPTIONS AND THEIR SIMULTANEITY
Day
Daily peak demand (GWh/d)
EU simultaneity
Winter 2009 /10
26/01/2010
27,432
94%
Winter 2010 /11
17/12/2010
27,093
93%
Winter 2011 /12
07/02/2012
29,459
97%
Winter 2012 /13
12/12/2012
25,778
96%
Winter 2013 /14
29/01/2014
21,842
94%
1) A winter period stretches from October till the end of March.