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50 |
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
TWh/y
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Scenario B
Scenario A
Figure 4.15:
Final gas demand
Table 4.4:
Combination of scenarios
4.3.1.4 Combinations of scenarios
In order to keep the range of scenarios both meaningful and manageable, the three
aforementioned categories have been combined based on the underlying assump-
tions of each scenario. The following table shows the two combined scenarios:
COMBINATION OF SCENARIOS
Combination
Global Context
Final gas demand
Power generation
GREEN
Gone Green
A
Vision 3
GREY
Current Policies
B
Vision 1
4.3.2. ANNUAL GAS DEMAND
4.3.2.1 Final gas demand (residential, commercial and industrial)
The following figures show the evolution of the annual final gas demand in both
scenarios. In the short term Scenario A shows a higher aggregated gas demand than
Scenario B. This may be linked to the more favorable economic conditions and lower
energy prices that characterize this scenario. However, in the long term, these
conditions would lead to investment in efficiency measures and higher implementa-
tion of low carbon heating solutions. This would result in a reduction in annual de-
mand compared to Scenario B.
Scenarios A and B are very close with Scenario B being 1% lower than Scenario A
in 2015 and 3% higher in 2035. These small differences at aggregated level hide
significantly diverging trends at country level. In 2035, Scenario B ranges between
25% lower and 38% higher than Scenario A at individual country level. These
different trends are partly due to the varying maturity of individual gas markets but
are also influenced by different strategies in the development of the domestic, indus-
trial and commercial markets being pursued by each country.