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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
4.3 Demand scenarios
4.3.1 ASSUMPTIONS
The long term evolution of gas demand depends on several factors, including de-
mography, macroeconomic parameters, energy and emission prices as well as tar-
gets set by energy and environmental policies. Such evolution is also the main driv-
er for the development of the gas market in each country. In order to assess this
wide range of uncertainties, ENTSOG has considered different settings for each of
the main parameters influencing gas demand.
4.3.1.1 Global context
The global context covers the price of gas and coal as well as the price of CO ² emis-
sions. The relative levels of these three prices influence the share of gas and coal in
the power generation mix. The two considered global contexts are:
Green – the price scenarios correspond to the “Gone Green” scenario from the UK
Future Energy Scenarios (FES)
1)
document, which is consistent with:
\\
A high price of CO ² emissions due to the introduction of a carbon tax
\\
A continuous reduction in the oil-price linkage mitigating the increase of gas
price when oil prices increase
Grey – the price scenarios correspond to the Current Policies scenario from the
IEA WEO 2013
2)
document which is consistent with:
\\
Lower price of CO ² emissions as no new environmental political commitments
are taken
\\
High energy prices following higher energy demand in absence of new
efficiency policies but with prices still too low to trigger the development of
renewables
4.3.1.2 Scenarios for the evolution of final gas demand
Final gas demand covers demand for residential, commercial and industrial use as
provided by TSOs. The uncertainty about gas demand for these sectors is captured
through two contrasting demand scenarios, defined by the following parameters:
\\
Scenario A covers favorable economic and financial conditions
\\
Scenario B covers non-favorable economic and financial conditions
1) National Grid July 2014
2) International Energy Agency – World Energy Outlook 2013