49 / 232
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
49
Image courtesy of GRTgaz
The implementation of this methodology requires a significant number of assump-
tions, including electricity generation from alternative sources and limitations in the
utilization of coal and gas. These assumptions are based on the actual electricity
mix, along with feedback from stakeholders and inputs from TSOs to reflect the spe-
cific factors for each country.
The net electricity generation for each country results from market studies for Visions
1 and 3. In these market studies ENTSO-E modelled the hourly behavior of the
power systems in 2030. The main difference between the modeling of the potential
annual and peak daily electricity mix comes from the assumptions regarding the
availability of alternative (non coal/gas) electricity sources.
In the case of wind, the annual generation can be estimated on average annual
values, while low wind availability implies a low daily load factor and hence a poten-
tial higher thermal gap. The peak gas consumption is expected on a day of high
electricity demand for which the availability of variable sources is low. The gas
consumption on a day when the availability of variable sources is high allows the
estimation of the flexibility required from the gas system in order to compensate for
variability. This is consistent with the approach of most TSOs.
Both annual and daily assumptions on the availability of alternative generation
sources as well as the technical limits of gas and coal-fired power generation have
been defined by TSOs. They are applied to the installed capacities of the different
sources defined by the ENTSO-E’s Visions 1 and 3 at country level.
In addition to the scenarios for power generation that come out of the application of
this methodology, some TSOs have provided their own gas demand scenarios for
power generation as detailed in Annex C1. To ensure a consistent approach for all
different countries and to ensure consistency with the ENTSO-E’s scenarios, the
modelling is based on the output of the methodology
1)
.
1) The forecast of gas demand for power generation in some countries may significantly deviate from the selected visions
from ENTSO-E which have been used in the assessment chapter. Gas demand forecasts for power generation from TSOs
can be found in Annex C1 with country specific assumptions in Annex C3.