47 / 232
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
47
0
40
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
€/MWh
2015
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
FES 2014 low
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
Gas
0
120
100
80
60
40
20
€/tCO
2
2015
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
FES 2014 high
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
CO
2
Figure 4.11:
Prices for gas, coal, CO ² and oil
0
160
120
140
100
80
60
40
20
€/t
2015
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
FES 2014
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
Coal
0
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
€/bbl
2015
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035 2040
FES 2014
WEO 2013 - current policies (CP)
OIL
4.3.1.3 Scenarios for power generation sector
The definition of gas demand scenarios for power generation was based on the
Visions covered by ENTSO-E’s TYNDP 2014 (see Annex F for more details about
those visions):
\\
Vision 1 – “Slow Progress”
\\
Vision 3 – “Green Transition”
ENTSOG has applied a simplified methodology with country granularity. This
methodology is based on the assumption that some of the sources used to generate
electricity show low sensitivity to market conditions. In the case of nuclear energy,
generation is mainly base load, while for renewables like hydro, wind or solar, the
generation mostly depends on the availability of the driving sources. The contribu-
tion of other sources such as gas and coal
1)
is mainly driven by the relative fuel
prices.
1) This would also apply to oil-derived fuels. Given the marginal role of such sources in the European generation mix they
have been considered fixed. The only exception would be Estonia, where the split of the thermal gap is done between gas
and oil.