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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Scenario B
Scenario A
Figure 4.21:
Final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case
0
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
14-day Uniform Risk (Scenario A)
1-day Design Case (Scenario A)
Figure 4.22:
Comparison between final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case and the 14-day Uniform Risk in different scenarios
0
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
14-day Uniform Risk (Scenario B)
1-day Design Case (Scenario B)
4.3.3 PEAK GAS DEMAND
4.3.3.1 Final gas demand (residential, commercial and industrial)
The following figures describe the demand levels under the 1-day Design Case, and
the 14-day Uniform Risk as defined in the Annex F. The 1-day Design Case shows
higher values under Scenario A than under Scenario B in the short term, but lower
values after 2025. Both scenarios show a moderate decline, the trend being more
accentuated for Scenario A. This is consistent with the
annual gas demand trend, as seen above.
This trend could be partly explained by an energy
efficiency increase in the domestic sector that would
reduce the response of gas demand in peak condi-
tions. By 2035, the peak final gas demand is reduced
by 13% in Scenario A and 7% in Scenario B.
This trend does not reflect the differences between the
individual countries, for which the 1-day Design Case
demand evolution between 2015 and 2035 varies be-
tween -76% and +46%.
The following figures compare the aggregated final gas
demand for the 1-day Design Case with the 14-day
Uniform Risk average daily demand. The differences
vary between -14% and -10%. In general, the 14-day
Uniform Risk follows the same decreasing trend as the
peak day.