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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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0
40,000
30,000
35,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Grey
Green
Figure 4.27:
Total gas demand on the peak day.
Figure 4.28:
Evolution of total peak gas demand in the period 2015 – 2035.
Gas demand for power generation is based on data from ENTSO-E SO&AF 2014 – 2030.
> -50%
> 50%
0%
GREY
> -50%
> 50%
0%
GREY
> -50%
> 50%
0%
4.3.3.3 Total gas demand for the peak day
The figure below shows the evolution of total gas demand for the peak day. The total
has been calculated by aggregating the final gas demand for the 1-day Design Case
and the peak demand for power generation. The difference between the GREEN
and GREY scenarios is small and the evolution along the 20-year period is very
limited. This results from the increasing trend in power generation and decreasing
trend in non-power generation.
Peak demands in the Green scenario are slightly
higher. The reduction in the total gas demand for the
peak day is due to the potential increase of RES and
the improvement in efficiency in the residential and
commercial sectors. The Green scenario assumes a
significantly higher electricity demand due to the
economic conditions and stricter environmental
policies. The increase in the use of electricity for
heating and for transportation associated with the
Green scenario could induce higher peak demands in
the gas system than in the more moderate Grey
scenario. Given the back-up role of gas in power
generation, the higher electricity demand induces a
higher gas demand for peak power generation.
The maximum peak demand is reached in 2020 in the
Grey scenario, and in 2025 in the Green scenario.
Demand evolution follows a slight decrease over the
full period. (see figure 4.27)
The aggregated European trend does not reflect the
diversity of individual observed country trends. The
maps in the following figures illustrate the differences
in the evolution for each country based on the Green
and Grey Scenarios (see Annex C2 for country specif-
ic information).