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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
5.3 Supply scenarios
For the purpose of this Report a supply scenario defines
the potential supply from a given source. The word
“potential” implies that these gas supplies cannot be
considered as forecasts of future flows. In order to
capture the uncertainty in the development of supply,
minimum, intermediate and maximum scenarios have
been defined for each source. The development of such
scenarios is based on literature, reports, daily news and
members’ and stakeholders’ feedback.
These scenarios cover both:
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Supplies from outside EU coming from Norway, Russia, Algeria, Libya,
Azerbaijan Turkmenistan, and LNG
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Supplies from inside EU coming from conventional national production, and
non-conventional sources like biomethane and shale gas
It is important to highlight that all potential gas supplies are regarded as pipeline
bounded gas supplies except LNG. In each scenario LNG is treated as a single
source gathering the potential supply of all producing countries. For those exporting
gas both as pipeline-bounded gas and LNG the potential supplies have been treat-
ed separately in order to avoid double counting. Each supply scenario is developed
independently and no specific likelihood is defined.
5.3.1 INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION
This section covers the national production of gas from EU countries plus Bosnia,
FYROM, Serbia and Switzerland. Such production covers conventional sources,
shale gas and biomethane.
5.3.1.1 Conventional sources
Conventional gas production in Europe decreased by 17% between 2010 and
2013. The evolution was not homogeneous. Production increased significantly in
Bulgaria and slightly in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania. The decrease of
UK indigenous production by 39% since 2009 accounted for almost all of the
decline in the EU over the period.
Based on TSO information, it is expected that the EU indigenous production will
decrease significantly over the next 20 years. This decrease could be slightly
mitigated with the development of production fields in Cyprus
1)
and in the Romani-
an sector of the Black Sea. Given the uncertainty of such developments, associated
production is considered as Non-FID and is included only in the High Infrastructure
Scenario (see Annex F).
1) Cyprus does not have a domestic market and as it is located far from European markets there is uncertainty where the
gas might flow either as pipe-bounded gas or as LNG. For modelling purposes it is assumed that a large proportion of
Cyprus production will be delivered to Europe.