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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
TWh/y
0
40
80
120
160
bcma
2015
2016
2017
1018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Conventional production (existing+FID)
Conventional production (Non-FID)
Figure 5.19:
Potential of EU conventional production 2015 – 2035
Next figure shows that EU conventional production could decrease by 60% by 2035
or even by 68% if the Non-FID developments are not commissioned.
Figures 5.20 to 5.23 show the potential evolution of conventional production by
country. From 2030 the production in the Netherlands and the UK would decrease
more significantly than in other countries in the absence of new discoveries.
The development of off-shore production would result in Romania significantly
increasing its share of the EU conventional production from 2025. After 2030 Cy-
prus could become the third biggest EU producer after the Netherlands and the UK.
Conventional gas scenarios
As a difference with other supply sources being import or unconventional indige-
nous production, there is less uncertainty on the evolution of European convention-
al production. The main uncertainty is related to the development of the necessary
infrastructures to connect these fields to the rest of the European gas system. For
this reason there is one conventional gas scenario defined by Infrastructure Scenar-
io:
\\
Low Infrastructure Scenario: TSOs’ best estimates excluding Romanian Black
Sea and Cyprus offshore production
\\
PCI Infrastructure Scenario: same as Low Infrastructure Scenario plus Cyprus
offshore production
\\
High Infrastructure Scenario: same as PCI Infrastructure Scenario plus
Romanian Black Sea production