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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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iStockphoto.comShale gas supply scenarios
To determine potential shale gas production for its scenarios, ENTSOG has taken
into consideration a range of data including information from Pöyry and TSO esti-
mates. Due to the uncertainty around the development of shale gas on EU territory,
the below scenarios are only taken into account in the High Infrastructure Scenario.
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Maximum shale gas scenario
Given the uncertainty surrounding EU shale gas production, this scenario is
based on the conservative “Some Shale Gas” estimate included within Pöyry’s
2013 report. It includes the application of environmental and planning
constraints (limiting the number of possible drilling areas because of environ-
mental and planning concerns) as well as constraints regarding practical (drill-
ing rig trained staff availability) and financial (cost of production exceeding pos-
sible future market prices) issues.
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Intermediate shale gas scenario
This scenario is based on the data from TSOs estimates of shale gas produc-
tion, collected by ENTSOG in July 2014. It should be noted that several TSOs
have not been able to provide data on shale gas production in their countries.
In such case no production has been included.
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Minimum shale gas scenario
This scenario is based on no shale gas being developed in Europe in the
upcoming years due to the high uncertainty. This implication is based on the
current weak results of shale gas extraction in Europe, difficult geological
formations, the lack of available trained staff and technologies in Europe, and
also public and governmental opposition due to the risks associated to the
extraction technics.