17 / 104
17
lion. Similarly, while the proportion of impoverished persons might
have declined in many regions, their absolute number has not fallen
in some regions as populations continue to rise (UNDP, 2008).
There are huge regional differences in the above trends. Globally, pov-
erty rates have fallen from 52% in 1981 to 42% in 1990 and to 26%
in 2005. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, the poverty rate remained
constant at around 50%. This region also comprises the majority of
countries making the least progress in reducing child malnutrition.
The poverty rate in East Asia fell from nearly 80% in 1980 to under
20% by 2005. East Asia, notably China, was successful in more than
halving the proportion of underweight children between 1990 and
2006. In contrast, and despite improvements since 1990, almost 50%
of the children are underweight in Southern Asia. This region alone
accounts for more than half the world’s malnourished children.
In addition to increasing demand for food by a rising population,
observed dietary shifts also have implications for world food pro-
duction. Along with rising population are the increasing incomes
of a large fraction of the world’s population (Figure 5). The result
is increasing consumption of food per capita, as well as changes in
diets towards a higher proportion of meat. With growing incomes,
consumption – and quantity of waste or discarded food – increases
substantially (Henningsson, 2004).
Kilocalories per
capita/day
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1964-66
1997-99
2030
Other
Pulses
Roots and
tubers
Meat
Sugar
Vegetable
oils
Other
cereals
Wheat
Rice
The global production of cereals (including wheat, rice and maize)
plays a crucial role in the world food supply, accounting for about
50% of the calorie intake of humans (Figure 6) (FAO, 2003). Any
changes in the production of, or in the use of cereals for non-human
consumption will have an immediate effect on the calorie intake of a
large fraction of the world’s population.
As nearly half of the world’s cereal production is used to produce
animal feed, the dietary proportion of meat has a major influence on
global food demand (Keyzer
et al
., 2005). With meat consumption
projected to increase from 37.4 kg/person/year in 2000 to over 52
kg/person/year by 2050 (FAO, 2006), cereal requirements for more
intensive meat production may increase substantially to more than
50% of total cereal production (Keyzer
et al
., 2005).
THE ROLE OF DIET
CHANGE
Figure 6: Changes in historic and projected com-
position of human diet and the nutritional value.
(Source: FAO, 2008; FAOSTAT, 2009).