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13
Index reference: 100=1998-2000
Oil
Rice
Wheat
Maize
Crude oil price (index)
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Oct-08
0
600
150
300
450
0
100
200
300
400
Food prices (index)
pose export restrictions, while some key importers bought
cereal to ensure adequate domestic food supply (Brahmb-
hatt and Christiaensen, 2008). This resulted in a nervous
situation on the stock markets, speculation and further
price increases.
The impacts of reduced food availability, higher food pric-
es and thus lower access to food by many people have
been dramatic. It is estimated that in 2008 at least 110
million people have been driven into poverty and 44 mil-
lion more became undernourished (World Bank, 2008).
Over 120 million more people became impoverished in
the past 2–3 years.
The major impact, however, has been on already impoverished
people – they became even poorer (Wodon
et al
., 2008; World Bank,
2008). Rising prices directly threaten the health or even the lives of
households spending 50–90% of their income on food. This has dire
consequences for survival of young children, health, nutrition and
subsequently productivity and ability to attend school. In fact, the cur-
rent food crisis could lead to an elevation of the mortality rate of in-
fant and children under five years old by as much as 5–25% in several
countries (World Bank, 2008). The food situation is critical for peo-
ple already starving, for children under two years old and pregnant or
nursing women (Wodon
et al
., 2008), and is even worse in many Af-
rican countries. Although prices have fallen between mid-2008 and
early 2009, these impacts will grow if the crisis continues.
Figure 3: Changes in commodity prices in relation to oil prices.
(Source: FAO, 2008; IMF, 2008).