WCA March 2017

61 / 84

59
Wire & Cable ASIA – March/April 2017
From the Americas
The USA
The start of a new administration finds
the American economy in a good place –
but will President Trump leave well alone?
The leadership qualities of the mercurial man elected by
Americans to be their 45th president are, at this early stage,
unknowable. But this much can be stated with certainty: the
national economy that President Donald J Trump inherits
from President Barack H Obama is very much healthier
than the one bequeathed by President George W Bush to
Mr Obama in 2008. When Mr Trump took the oath of
office on 20th January 2017, the near-term outlook for the
economy was bright.
The best standard for evaluating any nation’s economy is
gross domestic product (GDP), and expert opinion in the
USA projects near-term GDP growth rate in the ideal range.
Unemployment is seen continuing at the “natural rate”
estimated by the Federal Reserve. There is not too much
inflation, nor is there too much deflation. Taken together,
these are indications of a Goldilocks economy – not too hot,
not too cold, just right.
Writing on the personal financial advisory website The
Balance (“US Economic Outlook for 2017 and Beyond,”
29th December), Kimberly Amadeo recalled Mr Trump’s
pledge to increase economic growth to four per cent, which
she noted could stir “the irrational exuberance that creates
damaging booms and busts.”
But, presuming that bit of candidate’s hyperbole is left
behind with the campaign detritus, the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) – the branch of the Federal
Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary
policy – sees USA GDP growth rising to 2.1 per cent in
2017 (up from 1.9 per cent [estimated] for 2016 and the
same as the 2015 rate) before flattening to 2.0 per cent in
2018.
The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5 per cent
in 2017 and 2018 – better than the 4.7 per cent rate in 2016
and also beating the Fed’s own 6.7 per cent target.
While much of the job growth will be in part-time work in
service industries, given the permanent disappearance of
many high-paying jobs in the era of globalisation the trend
is encouraging. In a longer perspective, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) expects total employment in the USA to
increase by 20.5 million jobs over the period 2010-2020.
A particularly bright spot is construction, set to add
1.8 million jobs as housing recovers.
 Meanwhile, inflation will be 1.9 per cent in 2017 and 2.0
per cent in 2018, according to the FOMC. These rates
are higher than the 1.5 per cent of 2016 and 0.7 per cent
of 2015 (both dampened by the low oil prices of those
years), but the core inflation rate – excluding gas and
food prices – will be 1.8 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per
cent in 2018. That meets the Fed’s target.
For an additional piece of good-news reporting,
manufacturing in the USA is forecast to increase faster
than the general economy.
The FOMC expects factory production to grow three per
cent in 2017 and 2.8 per cent in 2018, before slowing
to 2.6 per cent in 2019 and two per cent in 2020. In the
context of the Great Recession of 2008 which greeted
his predecessor, even the famously dyspeptic Mr Trump
might be inclined to acknowledge that the American
economy at the start of 2017 finds the nation – and its
new president – in a good place.
 Late last year, economics reporter John W
Schoen posed a pertinent question: “If the recovery
continues to build momentum, will history credit Trump
or Obama?” (“Obama’s Biggest Parting Gift to Trump
May Be the Economy,” 2 nd December). Mr Schoen
observed that President Trump will, at least in part, be
judged by historians by his stewardship of the USA
economy. American voters will also have a chance to
weigh in on that when they return to the polls four years
hence.
Automotive
 Citing the Chinese car website Autohome (via
Autoverdict ), Stephen Edelstein of Green Car Reports
said (3rd December) that General Motors may re-badge
a current-generation Chevrolet Volt as a Buick Velite,
for sale in China. GM has marketed re-badged
first-generation Volts (the Holden Volt in Australia
and New Zealand, the Vauxhall Ampera in the United
Kingdom, the Opel Ampera elsewhere in Europe), but
the Chinese version of the plug-in hybrid would be the
first to be redesigned, as well.
At Auto Guangzhou 2016, held in November, GM
China unveiled a Buick Velite concept car, featuring a
low, aerodynamic hatchback shape but without any
accompanying technical details. The company said the
car’s flowing lines and sculpted rippling curves were
influenced by flowing water – a new design language
for Buick. The Autohome report included photos
of a Buick-badged Volt, said to be supplied by the
Chinese Ministry of Cars, the regulatory agency that
manages approval of new models for sale in China. In
Mr Edelstein’s opinion the car’s styling bore a strong
resemblance to that of the Volt available in the USA.
 Volkswagen is rebounding from its diesel emissions
scandal with an ambitious initiative for blanketing cities
with shared self-driving electric shuttles by 2025. As
described by Tom Brant on (5th December),
the German automaker’s new Moia subsidiary, which will
launch shuttles that urban commuters can hail with a
tap on a smartphone, is “part ride-sharing service, part
futuristic public transportation provider.”
TechCrunch reported that Moia, from headquarters
in Berlin, hopes to begin operations in two European
cities by the end of this year, with expansion later to
China and the USA. Eventually, Moia will build its own
autonomous electric shuttles to serve riders on fixed
routes during peak demand periods, with Gett – the
ride-share company which has received significant
investment from Volkswagen – as a backup for
passengers who want to go where it isn’t practical for a
shuttle to take them.
BigStockPhoto.com Photographer: Aispl