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ECONOMIC REPORT 2015
61
Production Forecast
At the start of the year it was anticipated that up to 15
new fields would start-up by the end of 2015, however,
one thirdof thesehave slipped into2016. This eventuality
had already been reflected in the risked forecast for the
year and so Oil & Gas UK has maintained its production
forecast as published in February’s
Activity Survey
.
The central forecast shows a marginal increase in
production in 2015 with it continuing to rise over the
remainder of the decade. Production is expected to
increase by around four per cent in 2016, another
three per cent in 2017, with a further rise of up to six
per cent in 2018, by which time it is forecast that annual
production should reach 1.7million boe per day (boepd).
Some assumptions are built into this forecast, namely
improvements to management of existing assets as well
as the timeliness of new start-ups. New field start-ups
play a critical role in the forecast and it is expected that
such developments will contribute over half a million
boepd in 2018, with the biggest contributions coming
from Schiehallion Quad204, Clair Ridge, Mariner, Laggan
Tormore, Catcher and Kraken.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Production (Million boepd)
Upper
Central
Lower
Source: Oil & Gas UK
Figure 47: Production Forecast
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