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ACTIVITY SURVEY
2016
page 28
Figure 16 shows a broader picture of how the UKCS’ reserve base has changed over time. It reveals that the
reserves base consistently grew between 2009 and 2012 before falling in each of the last four years as a lack of
exploration activity curtailed the rate of new volumes being discovered.
Sanctioned reserves have tracked a similar trend as maturation through to sanction also slowed following the
wave of big field approvals at the start of the decade. However, in 2015, the volume of sanctioned reserves was
upheld by the approval of new projects, particularly large developments such as Culzean and Glenlivet/Edradour.
The total volume in the ‘probable’ and ‘possible’ categories, meanwhile, has not been this small since 2007.
As outlined, prevailing economic conditions have led companies to reassess their portfolio of future developments
and, at this time, only the best and most material projects are deemed to be potentially viable opportunities.
Figure 16: Reserves by Probability of Proceeding
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16
Total Reserves in Company Plans (Billion boe)
Sanctioned
Probable
Possible
Source: Oil & Gas UK
Resource Comparison by Region
While resource projections should be treated with even greater caution at a time of price uncertainty, Figure 17
opposite estimates the potential of each geographic region of the UKCS.
The distribution among these regions has changed little over the last 12 months, with the CNS area remaining
the largest resource base. Of the ten billion boe in the CNS, just over 3.5 billion boe are currently within company
plans, over three billion boe of which are already sanctioned. The materiality of developments typically found
in this area means it is the only region of the UKCS that has not suffered a fall in its resource base over the last
12 months. On the other hand, the resource base in the NNS region has declined the most. Reserves within
company plans in the area fell by almost 15 per cent to just under two billion boe. This is because the region has
the highest cost base on the UKCS and faces severe operational challenges.