TPi January 2016

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January 2016 Tube ProducTs InTernaTIonal 57
Spotlight on the future of the
world’s nuclear power industry
An expert commentary from Charles Ferreira, business development manager,
and Kris Narasimhan, nuclear products manager, Fine Tubes and Superior Tube
Global energy demand is expected to grow at a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2 per cent between 2012
and 2035, driven in large part by expanding worldwide
electrification and increased mass power consumption in
emerging markets.
To meet that demand while reducing CO2 emissions
and enhancing energy independence at the same time,
governments plan to turn increasingly to non-fossil fuel
options to generate electricity with the nuclear power industry
– set to grow as a result at a CAGR of 2.44 per cent per year.
For example, China has plans to build at least 60 new reactors,
while India will need some 20 new power stations by 2030 to
meet its target of increasing the 5,000MW of electricity it
currently produces from nuclear power to 30,000MW by 2032.
In addition, Russia, the UK and the USA all have firm plans to
either build new nuclear power stations or add new reactors
to existing plants.
Moreover, apart from new builds, there is considerable
refurbishment and maintenance activity planned in many
countries with mature nuclear power industries. That is
significant because it can be eight or nine years from the date
that an operator or government agency decides to construct
a new plant until that reactor becomes operational. In other
words, the decision-making process as it affects the supply
chain can be a very long one, whereas, in the maintenance
field, it is possible to react more quickly to more pressing
demands.
In one such example, Canada will spend an estimated $20bn
in the coming years on the refurbishment of existing reactors.
Similarly, both US and French operators want to extend
the lives of reactors beyond their originally projected 40- or
60-year lifespans.
Mr Narasimhan makes the additional point that apart from an
ongoing need for consumable products, these refurbishment
projects offer huge opportunities to supply everything
those projects require, from heat exchangers to steam
generators.
There is good reason to be confident about the
future of the nuclear power industry. Nuclear energy
currently accounts for approximately 11 per cent of the
world’s electric power generation and that percentage
appears poised to increase.
Notably, all of this market activity has happened despite a
number of countervailing factors. The Fukushima incident in
2011 had a significant effect on the world’s nuclear power
industry, points out Mr Ferreira. Operators and engineering
companies have introduced new standards, and governments
have established requirements to put additional safety
equipment in place, which increases costs. We do not agree
with international nuclear safety consultant Mycle Schneider,
who commented that nuclear power is not economically
viable.
While the most obvious source for increased activity
undoubtedly is new-builds in developing markets, this is
far from the only source of growth for the nuclear power
industry in the coming decades. Increased activity for safety
upgrades and legacy projects will come from a number of
different sources around the world, including the USA, Europe
and Russia. There also will be significant nuclear efficiency
programmes and clean-up/decommissioning projects and,
moving beyond Fukushima, Japan plans for nuclear power to
contribute between 20 and 22 per cent of its electric power
generation in 2030.
Graph 1
Graph 2