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EUROWIRE (ISSN No: 1463-2483, USPS No: 022-738) is published bi-monthly by Intras Ltd

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© 2013 Intras Ltd, UK

ISSN 1463-2438

The International Monetary Fund foresees modest

global economic growth, with fewer risks of major

policy mistakes and less nancial stress.

The organisation said in January that it expects to

see amodest upturn in global growth this year of 3.5

per cent and then 4.1 per cent in 2014, up from 3.2

per cent in 2012.

Still, the IMF — the global economy’s lender of last

resort to countries in crisis — noted that nancial

stresses and the risk of amajor policy shock inEurope

and the United States have decreased. “Optimism

is in the air,” said Olivier Blanchard, the fund’s chief

economist.“Some cautious optimismmay indeed be

justi ed.”

Mr Blanchard noted that nancial markets have

become considerably more sanguine over the last

year, with the EuropeanCentral Bank starting amajor

new bond-buying programme and the US avoiding

the worst of the so-called scal cli package of tax

increases and budget cuts.

While that could be a sign that nancial markets are

experiencing some kind of “bubble,” Mr Blanchard

also said that investors couldbe“seeing thingswhich

are truly good.” Ultimately, with less nancial stress,

the real economy shouldpick up, thus explaining the

market optimism, he said.

ForWashington, priorities recommended by the IMF

would be to avoid excessive scal consolidation in

the short term and promptly raise the debt ceiling.

Christine Lagarde, the fund’s managing director, and

other IMFo cialshave repeatedlywarnedpoliticians

in Washington not to embark on too stringent an

austerity programme, for the good of the world

economy as well as that of the United States.

Thomas Helbling, of the fund’s research division,

said that the US faces a long-term scal problem,

with much of the policy

challenge resting in

bringing down health

care spending over

time. But he said that

the challenge seemed

“doable,” and stressed

that other countries

faced

far

more

wrenchingadjustments.

David Bell

Editor

Modest growth and

far fewer risks

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