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ISSN 1463-2438
The International Monetary Fund foresees modest
global economic growth, with fewer risks of major
policy mistakes and less nancial stress.
The organisation said in January that it expects to
see amodest upturn in global growth this year of 3.5
per cent and then 4.1 per cent in 2014, up from 3.2
per cent in 2012.
Still, the IMF — the global economy’s lender of last
resort to countries in crisis — noted that nancial
stresses and the risk of amajor policy shock inEurope
and the United States have decreased. “Optimism
is in the air,” said Olivier Blanchard, the fund’s chief
economist.“Some cautious optimismmay indeed be
justi ed.”
Mr Blanchard noted that nancial markets have
become considerably more sanguine over the last
year, with the EuropeanCentral Bank starting amajor
new bond-buying programme and the US avoiding
the worst of the so-called scal cli package of tax
increases and budget cuts.
While that could be a sign that nancial markets are
experiencing some kind of “bubble,” Mr Blanchard
also said that investors couldbe“seeing thingswhich
are truly good.” Ultimately, with less nancial stress,
the real economy shouldpick up, thus explaining the
market optimism, he said.
ForWashington, priorities recommended by the IMF
would be to avoid excessive scal consolidation in
the short term and promptly raise the debt ceiling.
Christine Lagarde, the fund’s managing director, and
other IMFo cialshave repeatedlywarnedpoliticians
in Washington not to embark on too stringent an
austerity programme, for the good of the world
economy as well as that of the United States.
Thomas Helbling, of the fund’s research division,
said that the US faces a long-term scal problem,
with much of the policy
challenge resting in
bringing down health
care spending over
time. But he said that
the challenge seemed
“doable,” and stressed
that other countries
faced
far
more
wrenchingadjustments.
David Bell
Editor
Modest growth and
far fewer risks
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